Making decisions under uncertainty: The Prudent Judgement Approach

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract This article offers an alternative conceptualisation of prudence as encompassing four normative components: reflective reasoning, experience, long-term well-being, and moderation. Prudence involves a pattern reasoning informed by experience in the pursuit well-being through moderate judgements actions. allows distilling set prescriptions for guiding deliberation choice under uncertainty, which I name Prudent Judgement Approach. An analysis John F. Kennedy's deliberations at start Cuban Missile Crisis uncovers evidence prudent judgement demonstrates practical feasibility value this approach. Although numerous cognitive procedural sources errors decision-making uncertainty are now well understood, there few prescriptive approaches process formulating making choices. shows how can help improve quality deliberative processes policy

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: European journal of international security

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2057-5645', '2057-5637']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2022.17